POISSON's DISTRIBUTION:

yaa this is what i was studying and found quite cool to test where it can be applied...

it says something like opportunities for occurances (n) should be great but even then probability of events (p) should be less.... ???? what is this.......

it means like earth has large number of asteroids around her (opportunities for occurances) but there probability of hitting the earth is so rare (10^-9) (probability) thank god!!!! :)

or now take another example
like we can have a hole in the wall and what is the possibilities of air molecules of this room (large n) to pass through it to diffuse in to the air of adjoining room....
well something like this concept of air molecules is applied in the purification ....
naaa.. enrichment of uranium 238 to 235.... here hole is on the roof of this room or space... and air is passed from the bottom... lighter 235 are separated.... yes the probability is so small that it is very costly affair..

so lets begin....
i tried to find the data and i found :

There are 2000 asteroids of size 1-2 km around the earth with probability of independent asteroid hitting is 10^-9. if one of them hits us... local extinctions and global cool down may occur...
if you want to know more what can happen please learn about saturn (or possible visit it... there is nothing better than self-visualization)...since  it has greater bodies around it and hence much larger probability..

so formula can be interpreted as:
\Pr(N_t=k) = f(k;\lambda t) = \frac{e^{-\lambda t} (\lambda t)^k}{k!}

k = number of asteroids you want to hit the earth.
lemda = probability of individual occurrences.
t = number of asteroids.

lemda * t = mean of hitting.

so put the values for k = zero (0).

so 1-P(0) is they would hit us...
yaa.. its 0.00001 (approx)

NOW finding out how much would we have to wait to see this phenomenon.

0.99 = 1-(1-0.00001)^years to wait
find it ....
it comes around 1 million..

thank goodness

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